MANCHESTER CLIMATE RISK & VULNERABILTY

In 2021, work was undertaken by Manchester Climate Change Agency (MCCA) to further understand the city’s climate risk’s and vulnerabilities. Resulsting in the publication of:

Manchester’s climate risk: a framework for understanding hazards & vulnerability

It identifies Manchester’s weather related hazards and projects how climate change will affect these hazards. It also establishes a framework to support the comprehensive assessment of the city’s vulnerabilities to climate change and to evaluate our capacity – or lack thereof – to respond to these threats.

This page presents a summary of the document.

Key Findings

Like everywhere else across the UK, Manchester is exposed to a range of weather hazards. These will be exacerbated by climate change, potentially creating significant future challenges for the city.
In terms of hazards, flooding is Manchester’s most prominent extreme weather and climate change threat. Floods in February 2020 and January 2021 are just the latest examples of the damage and disruption that these events can cause.
Although currently relatively uncommon, droughts, heatwaves and wildfires represent future risks. Of particular concern is the impact that hotter summers will have on the city and its inhabitants.
Many aspects of the city are exposed to the direct and indirect impacts of weather hazards, including society, economy, buildings, infrastructure, and natural assets. These impacts will be exacerbated by climate change
More research and evaluation is required to fully appreciate the extent of the risk of climate change for Manchester, both in terms of exposure and vulnerability. However, a framework for understanding vulnerability is proposed in this document. -
Manchester should consider developing an evidence-based climate risk assessment. There are several options for this, of varying degrees of complexity and resource requirement. Other cities have already developed, or are in the process of developing, a detailed climate risk assessment.

In terms of weather hazards, flooding is Manchester’s most prominent extreme weather and climate change risk. Although currently relatively rare, droughts, heatwaves and wildfires will also occur more frequently and will need to be given much more attention. Storms and high winds will also present a further risk. See Manchester’s potential range of future climate hazards and their potential impacts below:

Manchester’s Climate Hazards

Heat Waves

Climate projections suggest that Manchester will face warmer summers in the future. There is an associated increased likelihood that we will face intense very hot spells (heatwaves). Some summer days could potentially be extremely hot.
Higher night-time temperatures will be a particular problem in cities where buildingsretain heat overnight.
Increased frequency and intensity of intense convectional rainfall.
Significant human health implications. Increased death rates for the old, the very young and those with underlying conditions.
Negative impact on the thermal comfort of inhabitants. Consequences for the ability of people to rest and sleep, again with implications for human health and productivity.
Increased use of air conditioning, paradoxically producing further climate changing emissions.
Pressure on urban infrastructure including railways and airport capacity and efficiency.
IT servers may struggle to cope with very hot weather

Drought Conditions

Summers are, generally, expected to be drier in the future. Prolonged dry and warm periods may lead to drought conditions, exacerbated by increased demands on dwindling water supplies.
Some projections suggest that this hazard is more extreme than any of the historical events.
Increased demands on water resource at a time when reservoirs may not be replenished.
Potential subsidence and pipe fracturing.
Increased likelihood of moorland fires around the city with implications for air quality and human health.

Summer Storms

Although it is anticipated that, generally, the climate will be drier in Summer in the future, data from UKCP 2018 also indicates future increases in short-lived heavy rainfall events.
There is an increased likelihood that there will be greater intensity in hourly precipitation extremes. More particularly, the impacts of increased conventional rainfall events could be exacerbated by significant surface water run-off with precipitation falling on very dry ground.
Fluvial flooding for communities and properties - both residential and commercial – and infrastructure. Significant economic damage, as well as potentially severe, long-term social and psychological impacts for communities.
High river levels may accelerate riverbank erosion, cause silting and potentially alter the course of channels.
Overwhelming of urban drainage infrastructure. Pluvial flooding of communities, businesses and infrastructure nodes.
Overtopping or undermining of reservoirs or water storage.
Treatment works can overspill into a river during times of excess flow causing pollution.
Land instability, landslips, subsidence or sinkholes.
Possible (though likely to be isolated) damage from lightning strikes during intense convectional thunderstorms.
Disruption to – and potential closure of – infrastructure and transport networks.
Dangerous winds with the potential for fallen trees (in full-leaf), infrastructure disruption, and damage to buildings.

Autumal & Winter Storms

Winters are likely to be wetter. In particular, successive mid-Atlantic lows have the potential to bring considerable amounts of rain to the region. Groundwater levels and soil saturation could remain high all winter, particularly in the hills and moorlands around Manchester that feed rivers.
It is worth noting that UKCP 2018 warns “Users may wish to take the precautionary approach of considering the implications of a very large winter precipitation increase being more likely than the probabilistic projections suggest” (Met Office, 2019)
Fluvial flooding to communities and properties - both residential and commercial – and infrastructure. Significant economic damage, as well as social and psychological impacts for communities.
High river levels may accelerate riverbank erosion, causing silting and altering th course of channels.
Overwhelming of urban drainage infrastructure, pluvial flooding of residential property, businesses, and key parts of infrastructure and sinkholes.
Treatment works can overspill into a river during times of excess flow causing pollution.
Land instability, landslides and subsidence.
Overtopping or undermining of reservoirs or water storage
Disruption to – potential closure of – infrastructure and transport networks.
Dangerous winds with the potential for fallen trees, infrastructure disruption, and damage to buildings.

Cold Weather

Climate projections indicate winters will generally be warmer. UKCP 2018 suggest that by the end of the century there will be very few, if any, incidents of snowfall lying on the ground, except for on higher ground. This does not, however, entirely preclude periods of relatively prolonged cold snaps and accumulations of ground-lying snow in the short to medium term.
Threat to human health, particularly for vulnerable people including the elderly, people in fuel poverty and the homeless.
Pressure on infrastructure including disruption to transport networks, the fracturing of water and drainage pipes, snow and ice on power lines.
Disruption to transport services, including airport and road closures.
Disruption to public and human health services, including school closures, health services, and council services.
Economic impacts given business and infrastructure disruption.

In addition to these primary hazards, the UK is exposed to indirect – or cascading - effects of climate change overseas. These systemic risks may be more severe than the direct UK impacts (UK Climate Risk, 2020). These could include, for instance, climate-related disruptions to global food and supply systems. Climate change may also increase migratory pressures with implications for social cohesion and the provision and delivery of local public services.

Indirect Risk

Manchester’s Climate Vulnerabilities

People & Society

The health, wealth and well-being of everyone in society are fundamental indicators of the success and vitality of a city. Manchester is a complex and diverse city, composed of many intersecting communities with contrasting characteristics. Communities and individuals will be affected by climate change in different ways. Some people will have greater capacity to respond than others.
Economic Activity

Manchester faces considerable economic challenges. Moreover, wealth and economic opportunity is not shared across the city or its people. Climate change will bring both threats and opportunities to the economic sustainability and the competitiveness of the city. It has the potential to have significant implications for social justice and inclusive growth.
Place & the Built Environment

The places that we inhabit, and more specifically our built environment, is a key element of our exposure to the impacts of climate change. Our buildings must be constructed, managed and maintained in a way that ensures they are fit for purpose in a changing climate. Our urban spaces, public places and parks and green spaces are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Infrastructure

The effective functioning of our infrastructure is vital for economic and social wellbeing of all those that live and work in the city. Climate change threatens to both exacerbate long-standing vulnerabilities and introduce new vulnerabilities to the city’s infrastructure networks.
The Natural Environment

Manchester has a vast range of green and blue space and biodiversity. However, these spaces are of varying quality, and will come under increasing pressure from future development and fragmentation. Some of these spaces and their biodiversity and quality will themselves be impacted by climate change.
Cross Cutting Themes

There are several generic factors that impact Manchester’s sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. These include complex interdependencies that will frame any efforts to adapt to climate change such as the management of risk across the city’s boundaries, and evaluating the understanding of climate risk, resilience and adaptation.